Well, the World Cup final did not produce a scintillating display of running rugby. That was provided by the Pumas in their magnificent demolition of France in the 3rd place playoff. Jake White apparently told his side before the match to Keep It Simple, and they did that very well. England’s defense was magnificently aggressive, and it is possible that if the Bokke had tried harder to force a score they would have coughed up dangerous turnover ball and been caught in their own trap. It would have been ironic for them to lose to a breakaway try.

As it turned out, however, they kept things tight, took on the England pack, and at least stood tot-to-toe with them. They also avoided embarrassing turnovers and silly penalties. And when they got a kickable opportunity, Percy was flawless. That is the way that finals are generally won. He who makes the fewest mistakes is crowned champion.

As I said a couple of days ago, South Africa have been the form team of the tournament. They have no obvious weaknesses, and they always find something in the opposition that they can exploit. In this case their domination of the lineout made certain that England never had a reliable platform from which to attack. I was delighted to see Victor Matfield get the man of the match award. It would have been so easy to give it to Percy simply because he scored so many points, or to John Smit because he was the captain. Instead it went to someone whose work is often overlooked, but in this case was crucial to the success of his side.

Not much else left to say, really. It wasn’t a spectacular match. The best side won. See you all in New Zealand in four years time.

(Headline shamelessly filched from the Daily Mirror.)

In a few days time, a new World Champion of rugby will be named. Or perhaps not, because an English side that, earlier in the tournament, looked barely capable of beating the USA, has somehow managed to find its way to the final to defend the crown. Will they pull off a sporting miracle, or will the awesomely efficient Bokke provide a repeat performance of the 36-0 thrashing they handed out to England in the group stage?

Thus far South Africa have won all of their games, and it is easy to see why. They have the best lineout in the tournament. Their scrum and ruck are solid. Percy Montgomery has been superbly reliable with his kicking. Butch James has finally matured into a capable fly half. And in du Preez and Habana they have players whose speed of mind and of foot can break any defense. Only one team has really tested the Bokke, and that was the Fijians, who have the mercurial ability to score tries from anywhere, at any time. And if there is one thing that England definitely can’t do with any ease, it is score tries.

And yet, defenses win tournaments. Whatever other failings the English team might have, they are committed, organized, and mostly disciplined. They also know, as they proved against France, that if the game is in the balance with 20 minutes to play then Wilkinson will win the game for them. So South Africa need to establish a lead. If England are forced to play catch-up they’ll just spill the ball and throw interceptions that will get them into an even deeper hole. But if the Bokke can be prevented from scoring for long enough, then the game will go to whoever has the steadier nerves and the most accurate boot, and we all know who that is.

One area where England might be able to attack is the scrum. They completely destroyed Australia in that department. South Africa are, of course, another matter entirely, but they didn’t look 100% happy against Argentina. It looked to me like there was a lot of boring in going on, particularly on Os Durant’s side, and that Steve Walsh was turning a blind eye to it, presumably because, like me, he didn’t have a clue whose fault it was. How the referee for the final handles scrum infringements might be critical.

Aside from that, about the only non-defensive tactic England are likely to try is niggling the Bokke in the hope that they can get Schalk Burger or some other hot-head sent to the bin. It will, I think, be a bit of a bad-tempered game.

Overall, however, South Africa ought to win. That England have got to the final at all is something of a miracle. Although they would like to win, only their more fanatical supporters expect them to. If South Africa don’t win, they will be seen as having thrown away a golden opportunity. Their biggest enemy may well be nerves.

Incroyable!

Kevin has finally got around to watching all of the Rugby World Cup quarter finals, so it is safe for me to talk about the semis here.

There’s no need to guess what England will be up to against France. They’ll want to keep the same levels of aggression that they had against Australia; they’ll keep the ball tight, running pick’n’drive rather than sending the ball out wide; and they’ll play for territory in the hope that Wilkinson’s boot will give them the points they need. If they win 3-0 they will be very happy. (Confused American readers, just think Baltimore Ravens – possession football.)

As for France, they still haven’t really turned up to play so far this tournament, including in the shock win against the All Blacks. Hopefully a game against the English in Paris will be enough to rouse them into some sort of action. Serge Betsen will need to prove that he can succeed where George Smith failed, but if France are to win I think they’ll need a good performance from Yanick Jauzion, who can break any defensive line in the world if he puts his mind to it, and perhaps another Michalak Miracle.

Argentina looked a little tired against Scotland. I’m hoping that they were just taking it easy because they could afford to. They’ll need to step up the intensity again if they are to beat the Bokke. It could well turn into a kicking duel. Francois Steyn can hoof the ball further than anyone, but Juan Martin Hernandez is older and wiser and likely to win any ping pong game, so South Africa will want to leave the kicking to Percy Montgomery except when they are within Steyn’s drop goal range. Much as I have enjoyed watching Los Pumas epic journey, I suspect that the Bokke will be too much for them. South Africa are ruthless, determined, uncompromising, and they have Bryan Hanaba.